Avoiding the Edge of the Cliff

Over the past several years, small to medium-sized colleges and universities have been the subject of many articles and studies because of their perceived financial instability grounded on shrinking enrollment and diminished value of the degrees they grant. This is so well-known that we have coined a term for it: we call it the "the cliff," and we believe that over time different forces are getting us closer and closer to the edge of the cliff.¹

The angles used to study this cliff are endless, including student success, academic quality, institutional history, and campus mission. Because of this perceived risk, we find ourselves more often than not thinking about ways to neutralize the threat, about avenues we can take to make sure our institutions will enjoy consistent financial sustainability. In the last twenty years of my professional life, I have seen many creative attempts to innovate higher education, observing them through the lens of technology.

Mostly the technology-driven innovation attempts originate after a new technological paradigm shift has taken place. Obviously, the internet is the most famous shift, followed by videoconferencing, the move to the cloud, and (more recently) augmented, virtual, and holographic reality. I am sure I am missing quite a few in between. The main point I want to make is that most of these attempts are hinged on technology used to create new delivery models for traditional content. The outcome is often good, of course, as these innovation attempts have helped democratize education (a noble purpose) while also providing a way to contribute to financial sustainability, since institutions can attract additional students beyond the physical campus. Yet a key characteristic of technology advances is that the more successful they are, the faster they are commoditized, so innovations tend to be replicated quickly and become more of a utility and less of a game changer. As a result, those institutions that make changes early reap most of the benefits of the innovation, while the rest try to avoid obsolescence or irrelevancy.

The problem of financial sustainability remains. What should a small to medium-sized institution do? One avenue is to reconsider the type of instruction offered. The writing is on the wall, not only for technology careers but for other fields as well. In 2018 CNBC reported that more than a dozen companies no longer require a college degree for some jobs. Additionally, alternatives to traditional education are appealing to newer generations, who are finding many aspects of the same traditional education—such as outdated instruction-delivery models and escalating costs—very unattractive.²

At the same time, we are getting very clear signals from employers that traditional education is not keeping up with the existing demand in both quality and capacity. What this lack of keeping up has done is create an environment in which colleges and universities, instead of becoming more competitive, are giving others that have never been in, or have recently entered, this space the opportunity to fill the void. Think about that. "Alt-Ed" ventures such as Coursera, Minerva, StraighterLine, and others may be very well positioned to "gain traction" this fall as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic.³

I am sure many in higher education would agree that these new realities further increase the already high tension in the field. But I believe there is a way to counter that tension. We can gradually and dynamically adjust colleges and universities to match the needs that exist, rather than try to force people into a definition of education that evidently is being rejected and bypassed. I use the phrase "gradually and dynamically" very purposefully. I am not advocating for the traditional university model to be "ripped and replaced," as we say in the world of information technology. I believe there is, and there always will be, a market for that model. I am talking about tapping into new content to teach and new ways to teach it—about evolving to match what is right before our eyes.

According to one forecast, Salesforce and its "ecosystem" of partners will create 4.2 million new jobs worldwide between 2019 and 2024, which will have an economic output of $1.2 trillion in new business revenue. Another report indicates that there will be 3.5 million vacant cybersecurity jobs globally by 2021.⁴ Why am I bringing those two scenarios to the forefront? In those two cases—Salesforce through its Academic Alliance and Fortinet through its Network Security Academy—the corporations make their entire curriculum available to partners to help train professionals who will then be able to fill the 7.7 million unfilled jobs in the next few years. Meanwhile Cisco, Workday, NetApp, and others are also mindful their platforms create economies that need to hire professionals who are currently nowhere to be found, and they too are providing their curriculum through partnerships for training.

Can the needs created by these new economies be part of a solution for the financial threat facing small to medium-sized colleges and universities? Can a strategy hinged on these new economies help counter the multitude of forces pushing us closer to the edge of the cliff? I say yes. Starting an effort toward this kind of training requires a new approach. It requires more agile and flexible processes and back-end systems that can transact with interested prospects in real time. It requires the removal of bureaucracy. Students should be met where they already are, their learning styles should be respected, and they should be able to export their proof of competency attainment easily through mechanisms like digital credentials and/or badges. If we were doing this now, and doing it well, we would not be where we are: at the edge of a cliff.

Notes

1. Missy Kline, "The Looming Higher Ed Enrollment Cliff," Higher Ed HR Magazine (Fall 2019); Tom Boland, "Higher Education Is Headed for a Quality Cliff Edge: It Must Help Itself," University Times, April 19, 2019. See also Will Wootton, "The Real Reason Small Colleges Fail," Chronicle of Higher Education, June 8, 2016. ↩
2. Courtney Connley, "Google, Apple and 12 Other Companies That No Longer Require Employees to Have a College Degree," CNBC.com Make It, October 8, 2018; Ryan Jenkins This Is Why Generation Z Will Skip College, Inc., February 20, 2018, and Ryan Jenkins, "This Is How Generation Z Will Bypass College," Inc., February 20, 2018. ↩
3. Goldie Blumenstyk, "'Alt-Ed' Ventures Could Gain Traction in an Uncertain Fall," Chronicle of Higher Education, April 29, 2020; Susan Caminiti,"AT&T's $1 Billion Gambit: Retraining Nearly Half Its Workforce for Jobs of the Future," CNBC.com, March 13, 2018; Anthony Noto, "JPMorgan to Set Aside $350 Million for Job-Training Initiative," New York Business Journal, March 19, 2019; Amit Chowdhry, "PwC Is Spending a Massive $3 Billion to Upskill Its Employees," Pulse 2.0, October 6, 2019; Paul Fain, "Walmart Expands Employee Tuition Benefits," Inside Higher Ed, June 6, 2019. ↩
4. John F. Gantz, "The Salesforce Economic Impact: 4.2 Million New Jobs, $1.2 Trillion of New Business Revenues from 2019 to 2024," IDC white paper (October 2019); Steve Morgan, "Cybersecurity Talent Crunch to Create 3.5 Million Unfilled Jobs Globally by 2021," Cybercrime Magazine, October 24, 2019. ↩

Hernan Londono is Associate Vice-President for Information Technology and Chief Technology Officer (CTO) at Barry University.